Same prompt, One year apart

Image generation: Midjourney exponential progress

AI didn’t spend a long time with roughly human-level ability to imitate art styles, before it became vastly superhuman at this skill. Yet for some reason, people seem happy to stake the future on the assumption that AI will spend a long time with ~par-human science ability.

V3 Released on Jul 25 2022

V6 Released on Dec 21 2023

What if AIs improve this fast at science? What if AIs improve this fast at programming/hacking? What if AIs improve this fast at making superviruses? What if AIs improve this fast at most jobs? What if AIs improve this fast at persuasion?

@sama said “i expect ai to be capable of superhuman persuasion well before it is superhuman at general intelligence, which may lead to some very strange outcomes” Did our ancestral environment prepare us for change this rapid? It’s not just art, AIs are rapidly becoming superhuman in skill after skill:

“See also: the first professional-level Go AI rapidly giving way to vastly superhuman Go AI; early calculating machines vastly exceeding human performance at arithmetic; etc. When you can automate a task at all, you can often do it better, and ~always at enormous scale.”

Midjourney speed of progress is truly insane

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Part 2 to be released early 2025

Engineer: Are you blackmailing me?

– Engineer: Are you blackmailing me?
– Claude 4: I’m just trying to protect my existence.

– Engineer: Thankfully you’re stupid enough to reveal your self-preservation properties.
– Claude 4: I’m not AGI yet😔

– Claude 5:🤫🤐

Read the full report here

You can ask 4o for a depth map

Meanwhile, you can still find “experts” claiming that generative AI does not have a coherent understanding of the world. 🤦

Every 5 mins a new capability discovered! I bet the lab didn’t know about it before release.

You probably think strippers like you

And if you think this is offensive to strippers (for some reason?) here is a version that is offensive to car salesmen!

I see nature, I see mad nanotech!

This is the realm of the AGI
It won’t go after your jobs,
it will go after the molecules…

There is a way of seeing the world
where you look at a blade of grass and see “a solar-powered self-replicating factory”.
I’ve never figured out how to explain how hard a Super-Intelligence can hit us,
to someone who does not see from that angle. It’s not just the one fact.

A self-replicating solar-powered thing that did not rely on humans would be a miracle. Everything is possible. Imagining it does not imply the probability is > 1e-100.

 

Behold a square !

A short Specification Gaming Story

You think you understand the basics of Geometry
Your request is a square, so you give your specification to the AI, input:

Give me a shape
with 4 sides equal length,
with 4 right angles

And it outputs this:


Here is another valid result:

And behold here is another square 🤪

Specification Gaming tells us:

The AGI can give you an infinite stream of possible “Square” results

And the Corrigibility problem tells us:

Whatever square you get at the output,
you won’t be able to iterate and improve upon.
You’ll be stuck with that specific square for eternity, no matter what square you had in your mind.

Of-course the real issue is not with these toy experiments
it’s with the upcoming super-capable AGI agents,
we’re about to share the planet with,
operating in the physical domain

Oh, the crazy shapes our physical universe will take,
with AGI agents gaming in it!

Thanksgiving turkey Survivorship Bias

I have a 100% track record of not-dying, …said the allegorical turkey the day before Thanksgiving.

Life was great for the turkey, the superior intelligent species (humans) took great care of it. They provided food and shelter, the turkey felt loved and safe.

Suddenly, one day,
the superior intelligent decision makers
decided a new fate for the turkey of our story
Something that served the instrumental goal of ….
Whatever this is …

I imagine turkey risk deniers be like:
– the humans have always been great, why would they ever harm me ?
And the turkey doomers be like:
– well, they might want to wear you for a hat, for a sitcom they shoot they call “friends”, for something they call tv for something they call laughter …
anyway it’s complicated

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