Capabilities

Gradually, then suddenly: AI is now better than all but the best human programmers

o1 is GOLD-medal level at IOI (the “Olympics of programming”)

“o1 is showing [programming] skills that probably less than 10,000 humans on earth currently have, and it’s only going to get better.”

Soon, AIs will blow past mere humans, outputting billions of lines of code — and we will have no idea what they’re doing.

At first, we’ll check many of their outputs, then fewer outputs, but eventually there will be too much to keep up.

And at that point they will control the future, and we will just hope this new vastly smarter alien species stay our faithful servants forever.

I think the majority of people are still sleeping on this figure.

Codeforces problems are some of the hardest technical challenges human beings like to invent.

Most of the problems are about algorithms, math and data structures and are simplifications of real life problems in engineering and science.

o1 is showing skills that probably less than 10,000 humans on earth currently have, and it’s only going to get better.

This knowledge translates very well into software engineering, which is in many cases a bottleneck for improving other sciences.

It will change the fabric of society with second order effects,

probably in the next 5 years, while humans still adapt and create tools that use these models. However, the rate of improvement is greater than the rate at what we build, thus so many people today don’t know what to build with o1.

Looking at the things people have built in the past 3 years, it makes me realize most tools become less useful than the newest model is.

I believe that engineers should start preparing for a post agi world soon. Specially those that work in theoretical sciences and engineering.

Things are gonna get weird!

read more here

DEEPFAKE LIVE STREAMS – are on the rise.

Elon Musk’s Deepfake By TikToker Tricks Viewers During Live Stream!

This is wild and dangerous at the same time. The ways this can be misused..

Deepfake TikTok Live of @elonmusk. Made a compilation video of the conversations: pic.twitter.com/QQNKTtdCCE

— Jules Terpak (@julesterpak) August 26, 2024

In a jaw-dropping incident, a TikToker successfully fooled viewers during a live stream by using a deepfake of Elon Musk, as per reports. Many believed they were interacting with the real tech mogul, asking questions about Tesla, AI, and more. This remarkable use of deepfake technology raises concerns about authenticity in online interactions.

Identity theft cases are about to explode.

November 23

January 24

When I posted the left photo, imagination-poor skeptics mocked me for being “alarmist”, “I can tell it’s fake” blah blah blah

But how exactly will criminals steal your identity? They will use open source models to generate perfect deepfakes of you and drain your bank accounts, or steal the title to your house, or whatever.

It’s over.

Prompt: Selfie of a lady holding a handwritten small sign that says “r/roastme” “08/04/24” “username”

But the real problem isn’t identity theft – that’s a solvable problem – the problem is Exponential Slope Blindness.

Over and over people predict 1) no progress, or 2) linear progress and are then surprised by the continued exponential progress.

So people continually underestimate how powerful AI will be, which makes them underestimate the danger. It’s just a funny monkey robot doing tricks.

It’s not that we can’t solve the verification problem (we can), it’s about people repeatedly underestimating AI progress.

I say again: if AI can get this good this fast at this… maybe it can get good at other things insanely fast too? Like making superviruses, hacking, programming?

And we must be careful, because it’s dangerous to speedrun a new potential apex species through a million years of evolution

Image generation: Midjourney exponential progress
AI didn’t spend a long time with roughly human-level ability to imitate art styles, before it became vastly superhuman at this skill. Yet for some reason, people seem happy to stake the future on the assumption that AI will spend a long time with ~par-human science ability.

V3 Released on Jul 25 2022

V6 Released on Dec 21 2023

What if AIs improve this fast at science? What if AIs improve this fast at programming/hacking? What if AIs improve this fast at making superviruses? What if AIs improve this fast at most jobs? What if AIs improve this fast at persuasion?

@sama said “i expect ai to be capable of superhuman persuasion well before it is superhuman at general intelligence, which may lead to some very strange outcomes” Did our ancestral environment prepare us for change this rapid? It’s not just art, AIs are rapidly becoming superhuman in skill after skill:

“See also: the first professional-level Go AI rapidly giving way to vastly superhuman Go AI; early calculating machines vastly exceeding human performance at arithmetic; etc. When you can automate a task at all, you can often do it better, and ~always at enormous scale.”

Midjourney speed of progress is truly insane