Deniers

Thanksgiving turkey Survivorship Bias

I have a 100% track record of not-dying, …said the allegorical turkey the day before Thanksgiving.

Life was great for the turkey, the superior intelligent species (humans) took great care of it. They provided food and shelter, the turkey felt loved and safe.

Suddenly, one day,
the superior intelligent decision makers
decided a new fate for the turkey of our story
Something that served the instrumental goal of …. Whatever this is …

I imagine turkey risk deniers be like:
– the humans have always been great, why would they ever harm me ?
And the turkey doomers be like:
– well, they might want to wear you for a hat, for a sitcom they shoot they call “friends”, for something they call tv for something they call laughter …
anyway it’s complicated

graph made by Cicero @PauseusMaximus

The one thing AI will never be better at

Moving goalposts is the ONE single unique thing
AI will never surpass humans at,
because the second it does, it will still not be enough!!!

Inspired by this:

Reverse Turing Test

Reverse Turing Test: AI NPCs try to figure out who, among them, is the human

Aristotle is GPT4
Mozart is Claude 3 Opus
Da Vinci is Llama 3
Cleopatra is Gemini Pro

The funniest part?
3 of the 4 models guessed correctly… because the human’s response was too dumb 😂😂😂

For some context: Alan Turing was one of humanity’s biggest geniuses and his work was foundational to computing and arguably made possible the exponential technological progress humanity has enjoyed this century.
The Turing Test (originally called the imitation game by Alan Turing in 1950) is a test of a machine’s ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human.

Such was the importance of Alan Turing’s contributions to the field, that the scientific community established The Turing Awards which is generally recognized as the highest distinction in the field of computer science and is often referred to as the “Nobel Prize of Computing”.

Alan Turing was famously horrified with the inexorable arrival of misaligned Artificial Intelligent Machines. His position was that it is inevitable that sooner or later, machines will take control, overpower humanity and our species will be irrelevant, helpless and at risk of deletion.

I guess “The Reverse Turing Test” should be added to the list of Turing-inspired awards like the DeTuring Award proposed by famous Risk Denier chief AI Meta (formely Facebook) corporate scientist Yann Lecun (who is also a holder of a Turing award)

He was basically trying to be funny and his proposal was:
DeTuring Award to be granted to people who are consistently trying (and failing) to deter society from using computer technology by scaring everyone with imaginary risks. As the Turing Award is the Nobel Prize of computing, the DeTuring Award is the IgNobel Prize of computing

to which Connor Leahy responded: I nominate Alan Turing for the first DeTuring Award.

Original tweet 👇

Desires can’t be ridiculous

Loving temporally organised oscillations in air pressure is not stupid.
Loving paperclips is.

Smart AI would never want something as ridiculous as paperclips!”

– exclaimed AI skeptic and went on to enjoy his favorite temporally organized oscillations in air pressure obtained by picking seven specific frequencies out of logarithmic split of twelve for each doubling.

5 Optimist Falacies

Doomer chimp

Uhh, a species of chimp is on track to far surpass us in intelligence. The last time this happened, it led to the 6th Mass Extinction.

Optimist chimp

Lol it’s ridiculous to worry.
Why would they even want to kill chimps?

Doomer chimp

They don’t need to WANT to kill us. They might just want rocks from our land and… not care about us

Optimist chimp

Rocks? Those useless things? Lmao thought you said they were smart!

Doomer chimp

But you’re just a mere chimp, if you were 1000x smarter you might find tons of uses for rocks!

Optimist chimp

They’ll trade with us

Doomer chimp

If they’re much smarter, what do we have that they can’t just… take from us?

Optimist chimp

Comparative advantage, duh. We’re better at finding berries

Doomer chimp

You don’t think they can figure out better ways of getting berries?

Optimist chimp

We’re stronger, we’ll defend our land. They’ll have to get rocks elsewhere

Doomer chimp

Maybe that delays them a bit, but does that really give you comfort?

Optimist chimp

We’ll play them off each other

Doomer chimp

You think mere chimps will actually keep up in human politics?

Optimist chimp

Don’t Look Up

… but AGI instead of comet

Fox News’ Peter Doocy uses all his time at the White House press briefing to ask about an assessment that “literally everyone on Earth will die” because of artificial intelligence: “It sounds crazy, but is it?”

Horse Influencer in 1910

“A car won’t take your job, another horse driving a car will.”

AI is “just math”

Referring to AI models as “just math” or “matrix multiplication” is as uselessly reductive as referring to tigers as “just biology” or “biochemical reactions”

Surviving an Actual Tiger Attack 101:

Remember that tigers are simply made up of atoms and various biochemical reactions. The tiger’s appearance and behavior may be scary, but do not let your fear get the best of you! Decades of research into biology and physics has shown that tigers are actually composed of very small units called atoms, as well as many biochemical reactions such as the Krebs cycle. Things that initially feel scary can often turn out to be harmless upon closer inspection!

• If the tiger attempts to eat you, remember that you yourself are simply composed of atoms, and it is simply attempting to rearrange some of them for you.


I don’t know, for me-and this is probably I’m too much of an engineer-it’s like, what is Al? It’s math. It’s basically elaborations on linear algebra. I have a hard time getting worked up about linear algebra. It’s math. We’ll be able to keep the math under control. I’m not as worried about that.

Who’s paying you to say this?

AI risk deniers: human extinction will never happen.

AI safety folks: what about how virtually all species go extinct?

What about reasoning under uncertainty?

AI risk deniers: yOu’rE a dOomSDay cULt wHo’s gEtTiNg pAiD biG buCks in cHaRiTy!! AI will be PeRfecTLY sAFe fOrEVer

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